Can the Padres Be 2013's Surprise Team? - Gary Armida's Blog

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Gary Armida's Blog

Can the Padres Be 2013's Surprise Team? Stuck

Posted on January 30, 2013 at 08:44 AM.

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In a division that contains the defending World Series champion and the defending spending champion, the San Diego Padres have had a quiet offseason. That is usually the case in San Diego as the franchise is rarely a player in the free agent market and usually find pitchers willing to come to Petco to resurrect their career in the best pitcher park in the league. But, it is a bit unusual this winter as the Padres quietly finished the 2012 season with one the best records in the National League. After beginning the season with a 34-53 record, the Padres went on to win 42 of their last 75 games. Buoyed by an extraordinary second half by Chase Headley, the Padres finished strong, giving hope that they could be the 2013 version of the Oakland A�s or Baltimore Orioles.

There is no way to predict if a team is going to have that magical season where everything clicks. Everyone missed on the A�s because nobody really could foresee that their young pitching would come together so quickly. Nobody could say whether or not Yoenis Cespedes would be so good so quickly. And, of course, there were callups such as Brandon Moss and Chris Carter who provided an offensive spark for periods of time. As for the Orioles, nobody could guess that they would get so much from their organizational pitching, their bullpen would be elite, and that they would win so many one run games.

But, teams don�t hope for magic. Projections can�t be based on magic. The question becomes whether or not the Padres of the second half were really a team that figured it out or if they were a team that simply got hot and had things go their way for the second half. The latter happens quite often. When Buck Showalter took over the Orioles for the final 54 games of the 2010 season, the Orioles finished as the league�s hottest team, winning 34 of those games. Many pegged the Orioles as a surprise team for 2011 based on their finish. At the 2010 Winter Meetings, Showalter downplayed that notion saying that their finish had nothing to do with 2011. He was right as the Orioles won just 69 games that season.

One of the reasons for the excellent finish for the Padres does have a bit to do with their second half schedule. Their best month was August when they finished 18-10. But, the majority of those 18 wins came against the Pirates (5-1), the Mets (2-1), the Cubs (3-0), Rockies (1-0), and Diamondbacks (3-0). Against teams with winning records, they were 4-8. With the exception of a September sweep of the Cardinals, they followed the same pattern in their 13-13 September.

While it is always good win games against bad teams, the Padres weren�t even a .400 team against teams with winning records in the second half. That does put some doubt as to whether or not they can truly compete in what projects to be a much improved National League.

Last year, the Padres scored 651 runs, which ranked 10th in the National League. They ranked 11th in both batting average and slugging percentage and 8th in on base percentage. Their .307 wOBA ranked 10th in the NL and their 97 wRC+ ranked 5th best. The overall offensive statistics seem mediocre and the first reaction is to blame Petco Park. They did hit 27 more home runs on the road, but their .249/.321/.392 road line is quite similar to their home line of .244/.318/.367. At best, the offense can be considered mediocre.

Pitching has been the hallmark of the Padres since they opened Petco Park. If there is a place for a struggling pitcher to rehab his career or a veteran who has lost a bit to squeeze out a couple of more seasons, he should go to San Diego. But, the 2012 club didn�t rank at the top of any pitching category. They ranked 10th with a 4.01 ERA (4.11 FIP), 9th with 7.56 K/9, and 13th with 3.38 BB/9. Only two starters pitched more than 180 innings and while the bullpen received some solid performances, the relievers ranked just 11th in WAR.

And, surprisingly, the 2012 Padres were a below average defensive club. That actually includes above average performances from third base and centerfield. Overall, their -15 UZR and -24 DRS ranked 11th in the National League.

Adding all of that up, it looks like the 2012 Padres were simply a mediocre team that had a softer second half that allowed them to compile a record that was better than they really were. But, can they build on that despite the overall mediocrity?

The 2013 chances of a winning season starts with Chase Headley. Heading into his age 29 season, Headley is coming off of a career year that saw him hit .286/.376/.498 with 31 doubles, 31 home runs, 115 RBI, and 16 stolen bases. He is one of the Padres who can actually claim that Petco stunts his numbers as he slugged .541 on the road against .455 on the road. He also put together an otherworldly final two months of the season that saw him slug over .600 in each month with 10 doubles and 19 home runs in his last 57 games.

The Padres are pinning their hopes on Headley being the guy they saw in the second half that evolved into a complete hitter rather than the one they saw during the previous four seasons that saw him slug over .400 just once (his first half season). Does one elite half season mean that Chase Headley has evolved to the best offensive third baseman in the sport? That question can only be answered once the games begin. But, based on his body of work, there has to be some doubt. Additionally, the chances of him slugging over .600 again are remote. So, a more realistic projection may look like .280/.365/.450 with 22 home runs. That can be enough if other players continue to improve.

While healthy Carlos Quentin will help in that regard, the real focus has to be on the development of Yonder Alonso. Alonso is entering his age 26 season after completing his first full season as a regular. He posted a respectable .273/.348/.393 with 39 doubles, 9 home runs, and 62 RBI. Home/road splits were quite similar, but Alonso did improve as the season wore on, slugging .500, .411, .400 in the final three months. If he can improve with .285/.360/.430, the Padres will have a solid core.

That core will need Logan Forsythe to build on his solid 91 game performance or have Alexi Amarista produce more like his Minor League track record. They will need Everth Cabrera to thrive in the leadoff spot and improve on his .324 on base percentage. And, they will need Cameron Maybin to rebound from his poor season and perform more like the 2011 version that inspired the Padres to sign him to a long term deal.

Perhaps the lineup improves a bit, but the Padres are hurt that they couldn�t add anything to the lineup. They are returning the same lineup that was quite mediocre and carried by an absurdly hot Headley.

That statement also applies to the pitching staff, which wasn�t improved. Freddy Garcia was signed to a Minor League deal and could be their latest resurrection project. Like their offense, the 2013 Padres staff remains largely the same. Clayton Richard and Edinson Volquez return as the top two starters. Eric Stultz had a great 18 appearances last season, but can he replicate that at age 33? Will Jason Marquis be able to replicate his 15 starts that saw him compile a 4.04 ERA? Can Anthony Bass crack the rotation and build on his season that showed some promise despite the 4.74 ERA?

With no starting pitcher with a high ceiling and prospect Casey Kelly looking less likely to be able to contribute at a high level, the 2013 Padres look to have, at best, much the same results from the pitching staff.

General Manager Josh Byrnes didn�t add much to the organization for the 2013 season. Much of that has to do with budget concerns. Perhaps, Byrnes recognized that the Padres� second half was more of an aberration than it was a sign, much like Showalter did a couple of years ago in Baltimore.. The farm system isn�t ready to really deliver high end talent and the roster, especially on the pitching end, is void of high end talent. The offense does have three better than league average bats in Headley, Quentin, and Alonso, but there isn�t realistic way to project a great improvement in 2013. Headley would be the best player in the entire sport if he came close to replicating his last two months of 2012. Quentin is a home run hitter with decent on base skills, but has proven to be less than durable during his career. And, he is entering his age 30 season. Alonso is a capable hitter and could improve substantially. But, that�s about it in terms of realistic expectations for improvement. Byrnes didn�t add to the team and that might be the best move he made by not buying into a two month stretch against bad teams.

That doesn�t even take into account the fact that the Padres play in the same division with the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers, two of the favorites to represent the National League in the World Series. While the Diamondbacks went backwards this winter with their player personnel moves, they still have a team that could win 81 games. Only the Rockies are discernibly worse.

Could the San Diego Padres be that surprise team? It�s certainly possible. They play in a ballpark that could be an asset. They can get surprise pitching performances like the Orioles got last season. They could be that team that wins an abnormal amount of one run games. It could happen. This is one of the reasons why we love baseball. We never know which team will be �that team�. But, logic and reasonable projections say otherwise. As is, it looks like the Padres will have trouble winning 78 games this season, let alone compete for a playoff spot.

But, hey, anything can happen. Just ask the Orioles.

Sound off OS: Do you buy the Padres as the 2013 sleeper team that gets into the playoffs?

Gary Armida is a staff writer for Operation Sports. He also writes at fullcountpitch.com. Join the conversation on twitter @garyarmida.

Comments

# 1 Greene_Flash03 @ Jan 30

Nice write up! Huge Padres fan here, and I hope you are right. We need Orioles magic this year.

# 2 riichiieriich @ Jan 30

LOL the Padres being a playoff team? Yea right. Their offense is beyond anemic and the front office refuses to spend money. I love living in San Diego but the sports scene is horrendous.

# 3 teebee @ Feb 3

This is one of the worst writeups of Sd i've ever been privy to witnessing; you obviously don't know anything about their farm system (which is loaded) and you didn't even mention Yasmani Grandal (or his suspension).

Turrible piece

# 4 Gary Armida @ Feb 3

@teebee A good point about not mentioning farm system. My rationale is this: Yes, they are a deep farm system--generally being ranked 5th or 6th this year with Alonso and Grandal no longer qualifying as prospects. But, their difference making talent like Rymer Liriano and Jedd Gyorko are likely another year away. For 2013, none of their better talent really is ready. If they are, hey, maybe they surprise. But, offensively, the Major League club is essentially on their own unless one of them takes a big leap.

As for Grandal, I think what I should've mentioned was whether or not Nick Hundley can put it back together in the 50 games before Grandal becomes a factor.